US President Donald Trump can throttle down EV sales here in the US, but he can’t stop the global decarbonization movement. Besides, the US market has already become somewhat irrelevant. The latest report from the firm Rho Motion shows that global EV sales grew 28% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024, while in the US they grew by only 6%, including plug-in hybrids as well as 100% battery EVs.
Global EV Sales Snapshot: Where, Oh Where, Is The USA?
To be clear, the US is still a major EV market. In addition, the lowly 6% year-to-date showing is still EV sales growth — and it does not include the potential impact of the new tax bill (the “Big Beautiful Bill”) on total sales for 2025. Passed by the Republican majority in Congress, the bill eliminates the $7,500 EV tax credit on September 30. It remains to be seen if a gigantic surge of EV-curious drivers makes up their collective mind to take advantage of the tax credit before it expires, but that’s a distinct possibility.
Then there’s the impact of brand switching. Earlier this year, CleanTechnica took a look at the Q1 track record for 100% battery-electric vehicles, and noted that non-Tesla EV sales in the US were up 32% compared to the same quarter last year, while Tesla sales were down 9%. The difference going back to Q1 2021 is even more dramatic. Since then, non-Tesla sales grew 472%. Tesla sales also grew between 2021 and 2025, but only by 85%.
Tesla is still the US sales leader by volume, by a wide margin. However, compared to 2021, the company has lagged far behind other automakers in terms of growth. That reflects a significant mental leap for prospective EV buyers here in the US and elsewhere around the world.
Will The US EV Sales Trickle Turn Into A Flood?
In particular, EV drivers in the US have been conditioned to want a Tesla, a Tesla, a Tesla, and only a Tesla. After all, Tesla is a homegrown US startup. Tesla was the first automaker to produce successful EVs at volume in the US, the company has diligently cultivated a reputation for safety as well as performance, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been touted far and wide as an Edison-level genius. By the time the Big Three legacy automakers got their EV act together, Tesla was way out in front in name recognition as well as sales volume.
As competition from other automakers rose, it was up to Musk to keep the Tesla sales momentum going. He succeeded brilliantly at first and kept on succeeding for several years, even as EV buyers overlooked an increasingly concerning series of episodes involving Musk’s personal and political behaviors.
Last year’s hookup with US President Donald Trump was a bridge too far, though. Prospective EV buyers who had their hearts set on a Tesla have had to re-calibrate. Owning an EV is not a no-brainer any more. Car shoppers who want to avoid buying a Tesla have had to research the alternatives and make a choice. With the $7,500 tax credit in hand, the clock was not ticking, but now it is.
Just a wild guess, but it’s possible that a last-minute rush to buy EVs before the tax credit expires could exceed expectations, as fence-sitting brand switchers are forced to make a decision or lose the credit.
The Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Factor
If you have any thoughts about that last minute tax credit rush, drop a note in the comment thread. Rho Motion has this to say (break added for readability):
Following President Trump signing the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ into law on 4 July 2025, all IRA consumer tax credits for new, used, and commercial EVs are withdrawn and will be terminated on 30th September 2025.
Just over half of EVs sold in the US this year have been eligible for the tax credit. We therefore expect a rise in EV sales before the elimination of the tax credit at the end of Q3, and then a sharp decline in demand in the final quarter of the year.
How sharp? It could be dramatically sharp, at least over the short term. Meanwhile, consider that household income for EV owners tends to skew higher. Households on a budget have been holding off, waiting for that elusive “affordable” EV — or buying used EVs.
General Motors is among the automakers seeking to chase down budget-conscious EV buyers by reducing the cost of the battery. Undeterred by the impending loss of the tax credit, yesterday, GM announced that it will be expanding its lineup to include more affordable vehicles sporting its new LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries. The new batteries won’t be available until late 2027, long after the tax credit expires. However, sales of the Cadillac LYRIQ and other high end vehicles could help keep the EV part of GM’s business afloat until then.
Global EV Sales Leave The US Behind In The Dustbin Of History
In terms of the global transition to electric vehicles, the US already has a lot of catching up to do. “Today’s EV sales figures of the first half of 2025 show that China and Europe are steaming ahead in terms of the electric transition,” Rho Motion notes. “Over one in two electric vehicles sold in the world are being bought in China and around half of purchased new cars in the country are electric.”
“Despite some nervousness over subsidies, we expect this strong EV sales trend to continue over the course of the year,” Rho Motion concludes, while “the USA could struggle to see any growth in the EV market overall in 2025.”
Ouch! Still, hope springs eternal. Tesla aside, keep any eye on goings-on in the luxury EV market after September 30. Just another wild guess, but households that can afford to buy a Cadillac LYRIQ or such can afford to eat the tax credit, too.
On its part, Tesla — and its carefully cultivated safety reputation — are hanging in the balance in Florida, where a wrongful death suit involving the company’s so-named FSD (Full Self Driving) technology is finally going to trial by jury.
“This is one of many lawsuits against Tesla that question the safety of the company’s driver-assistance systems and accuse the company of exaggerating their capabilities,” National Public Radio reported on July 14.
“But few of these cases have actually gone to trial, with Tesla often settling claims outside the courtroom,” NPR added.
Publicity over the trial could add yet another damper onto EV sales for Tesla, which has already been suffering through a fresh round of reputational hits involving Musk’s “Grok” chatbot.
Photo by Kyle Field | CleanTechnica.
